Scenario Analysis

Explore how different assumptions or future conditions could change an outcome.

What is scenario analysis?

Scenario analysis helps you think about several plausible ways a situation could develop. Instead of trying to predict one future, you examine different possibilities and ask what each one might mean.

Scenarios
Different ways the situation could develop.

Assumptions
Things you believe or expect to be true in each scenario.

Consequences
What might happen if those assumptions prove true?

Responses
What could you do in each situation?

Try it with AI

I want to use scenario analysis to think about [describe the situation, decision, project, or plan]. Help me develop three plausible scenarios based on different assumptions about what could happen. Ask me questions when you need more context. For each scenario, explain the assumptions, possible consequences, and actions I might consider. Don't assume that one scenario is certain to occur.

Work with the results

Ask the AI assistant to:

  • identify assumptions that may be questionable

  • suggest important scenarios I may have overlooked

  • identify what would have to happen for each scenario to become more likely

  • distinguish plausible scenarios from unlikely ones

  • identify early signs that could indicate which scenario is developing

  • suggest actions that would work across several scenarios

  • identify actions I could take now to prepare for each scenario

A simple reminder

Scenario analysis doesn't tell you what will happen. It helps you think about what you might do if different things happen.